Make a guess of the number of hermits that you think will most often get sick. ______

• To determine a solution, use a bag with ten tiles in it numbered 1 to 10.
• Without looking in the bag pull out one tile and write down the number of a separate piece of scratch paper.
• Replace the tile and pull out another tile and write down that number.
• Continue pulling out tiles until you finally pull out a tile for a second time.
• Put a tally mark in the appropriate place in the chart below.
• Run at least 20 "epidemics" and record the number of hermits infected at the end of each epidemic.

The Hermit Problem Graph
Day 2

• Finish running at least 20 epidemics.

• Record your results on the "Class Results" Sheet.

• Make a line graph of your individual results. Use a ruler and include labels for both axis. Include a title for the page.

• Graph the class result on a separate graph AND answer the following questions:

1. According to the class results, how many hermits will be infected in the "average" epidemic? Are you surprised by this result? Why or why not?

2. If there were 100 hermits on the island, how many hermits do you think you get sick? How could you find out the answer?